Anecdotes vs. Evidence

Posted on May 23, 2012 by dedc79

Watching the right wing try to assemble evidence of a “War on white men” is kind of like watching a toddler mash non-matching puzzle pieces together.

The narrative on the right is that the country is ignoring the real bias crimes in this country, which are largely directed at white men.  The chief villain in this narrative is our President, and his main facilitators are academics and the mainstream media.

If there was any truth to this narrative, you would expect to see some evidence showing a proportionally higher level of bias crimes against whites than against minorities.  If not that, at least some evidence that the rate of bias crimes against whites is rising faster than the rate of bias crimes against minorities.  The problem is, the data shows the opposite:

Indeed, the irony of the race war narrative’s latest flare-up is that it comes at a time when national crime rates have reached historic lows — including reported hate crimes against whites. According to a report released by the FBI, there were 575 anti-white bias crimes reported in 2010 — up slightly from the 545 reported in 2009, but distinctly lower than the 716 reported in 2008. Overall, the past decade has seen a downward trend in anti-white bias crime. What’s more, hate crimes against blacks have continued to outstrip those against whites by about four-to-one: In 2010 alone, there were 2,201 reported. Violent crimes across the spectrum reached a four-decade low in 2010.

Unhappy with all the attention devoted to the Trayvon Martin shooting, Faux News’ Bill O’Reilly has been devoting a lot of time to an alleged bias crime perpetrated against whites in Norfolk, Virginia.  O’Reilly, as is often the case, missed the forest for the trees.  This isn’t some war of anecdotes.  That minorities, and in particular african americans , are expoed to bias and discrimination on a daily basis, is not dependent upon George Zimmerman having been provoked by racism.  The shooting is quite possibly an example of a well-documented trend, but, if so, it is just one of a littany we have to choose from.  The “war on white” theorists, in contrast, have to search far and wide for examples of bias crimes against whites, because they simply don’t happen all that often.

This entry was posted in News and Current Events. Bookmark the permalink.
  • http://www.tarheelred.com/ Pino

    If not that, at least some evidence that the rate of bias crimes against whites is rising faster than the rate of bias crimes against minorities. The problem is, the data shows the opposite:

    Your data doesn’t demonstrate anything regarding trends. It does do a nice job of establishing the anti-white bias trend, however, there isn’t even an attempt of the article to create a trend describing anti-black bias trends.

    I guess there are some folks who are trying to say that there is more anti-white bias crimes but I wouldn’t. Rather, I think a lot of the folks are saying that yes, there ARE anti-black bias crimes but there are also anti-white bias crimes as well. And the media doesn’t report that. And the race baiters, Jesse and Al, don’t swoop in for those crimes.

    And to make matters worse for that crowd, the last two big racial crimes these two knuckle heads have gotten involved in have turned out to not work for them; Zimmerman and Duke Lacrosse. Duke was extremely painful for them and I anticipate that Florida will result in something of the same nature.

    What’s more, hate crimes against blacks have continued to outstrip those against whites by about four-to-one

    I dislike the concept of a hate crime, however, we are forced to deal with it. I haven’t thought about it much less read about it, but I wonder….

    Would we expect the number of hate crimes to be higher if the population of the victims are higher or if the population of the perpetrator is higher?

    That is, there are more white people than black people. So, does a number of crimes, say 2,201 reflect on the population of black people or on the population of white people?

    • http://poisonyourmind.com dedc79

      Those last questions you posed were ones I was wondering about too.

      Which matters more, a higher population of potential perpetrators or a higher popluation of potential victims?

      I would note that african americans aren’t the only minority out there. So a comparison of bias crimes against whites vs. against blacks only provides one piece of the larger picture.

      As for Zimmerman – the issue isn’t so much what happened once he confronted Martin as why he did so in the first place. No new evidence has come forward changing that part of the story. As for the Duke situation, I don’t recall it being portrayed as racially motivated. It was more of an issue of preppy, affluent lacrosse players potentially sexually assaulting a stripper.

      • Lamb

        IIRC it was affluent, preppy players were upset that the stripper they ordered turned out to be black.

        Then, in the heat of the dispute, they called her a ‘nigger,’ and to get back at them she fabricated the rape story.

        There is a lesson to be learned here. Wait, no there isn’t.

  • http://poisonyourmind.com reflectionephemeral

    In real life, in the Fortune 500, there are eight black CEOs, none of them female. In 2009, white households had on average $113.2K in net worth, Hispanic households had $6.3K, and black households had $5.6K. Meanwhile, in 2010, “27.4 percent of blacks and 26.6 percent of Hispanics were poor, compared to 9.9 percent of non-Hispanic whites and 12.1 percent of Asians.”

    It’s strange to see folks like Bill O’Reilly trying to argue that the world is out to get white males. Stranger still that they seem to think that the problem with black people is their sense of victimhood. I guess all politics is tribal. Certainly, in a Republican Party that has abandoned policy beliefs, there’s little more than tribalism left to justify membership.

    • http://www.tarheelred.com/ Pino

      In real life, in the Fortune 500, there are eight black CEOs, none of them female.

      So…I know that you like numbers to just be the same and that we shouldn’t have to account for differences in population. As such, I would suspect that you would like to see a more 50-50 split in CEOs that are black and those that are white.

      However, 72.4% of Americans are white and 12.6% that are black. Using those proportions we should expect to see:

      500 * 72.4% = 362 white CEOs and
      500 * 12.6% = 63 black CEOs

      Now granted, 6 is a long way away from 63, but I just wanna point out that even if we DO get to the proportional amount, there will be more white CEOs.

      In our past discussions, I’m not sure you buy this. So, with respect, do you agree that this “back of the envelop” math is right?

      • http://poisonyourmind.com reflectionephemeral

        I think he’s pointing out that there exists hate crimes committed against white guys and no where do we see the media circus.

        I hadn’t realized that the police force in Norfolk had an admitted killer in custody, let him go with minimal investigation, and that the person who was killed was left in a morgue as a John Doe for three days without any effort to identify him or contact his family. Those situations are indeed comparable, then; we should have seen a bit more coverage of those events, and more pressure on the police.

        I know that you like numbers to just be the same and that we shouldn’t have to account for differences in population.

        This is made up in your brain, and is not true.

        As such, I would suspect that you would like to see a more 50-50 split in CEOs that are black and those that are white.

        Please allow me to quote William F. Buckley, from 1957: “The central question that emerges … is whether the White community in the South is entitled to take such measures as are necessary to prevail, politically and culturally, in areas in which it does not predominate numerically? The sobering answer is Yes–the White community is so entitled because, for the time being, it is the advanced race. It is not easy, and it is unpleasant, to adduce statistics evidencing the median cultural superiority of White over Negro: but it is fact that obtrudes, one that cannot be hidden by ever-so-busy egalitarians and anthropologists.”

        Wait, no, sorry, wrong Buckley quote. Here’s the one I was looking for: “I won’t insult your intelligence by suggesting that you really believe what you just said.”

        • http://www.tarheelred.com/ Pino

          Wait, no, sorry, wrong Buckley quote. Here’s the one I was looking for: “I won’t insult your intelligence by suggesting that you really believe what you just said.”

          It is not entirely clear that you are willing to adjust numbers to account for populations of different races or nations. When I comment that a reason the Nordic states live longer than Americans and try to point out that America is a much more diverse nation with groups of people who trend to live shorter lives, you counter with “a person is a person”. So no, I can not assume that you are willing to take such considerations into account here.

          That such things like the number of white folks vs black folks would impact the number of black CEOs. So I may be forgiven if I’m interested in such details. In fact, when isolating such details, I am able to demonstrate that the life expectancy rate in America is not telling the whole picture. Just as it might be the case that CNN report may not be telling it either.

          Those situations are indeed comparable, then; we should have seen a bit more coverage of those events, and more pressure on the police.

          I see. So, anti-white bias crimes occur, we’re okay with the police not taking action because the whites in question weren’t killed.

          Now, I didn’t know he was listed as John Doe. However, thinkprogress has it reported that he was identified after the father filed a missing persons report later in the day on the 27th.

          But let’s not overlook something here. It is beginning to appear to be the case that the young man attacked Zimmerman. It is NOT clear that this was a hate crime

          • http://poisonyourmind.com reflectionephemeral

            America is a much more diverse nation with groups of people who trend to live shorter lives, you counter with “a person is a person

            You heard somewhere that African American health outcomes are worse than those for whites, so you want to find a way to minimize the importance of black health care outcomes.

            For your approach to work, we’d have to ask whether it would make sense to compare, say, me to people living in Europe today (I grew up in a different context, three-plus generations removed, and am about 80% Irish; should I be compared to people in Europe, or just Ireland?); whether, say, any different outcomes for Americans of Polish or Vietnamese descent in the US in the 1970s, when those countries were in bad shape, were due to some innate Foreignness or due to differing conditions; whether societies and subpopulations that were comparable at one time have remained so over time; and any number of other factors.

            You’ve never done the work, never hinted that you know that it exists. Just, “hey, black people have worse health outcomes, therefore our health care system is A-number one!”

          • http://poisonyourmind.com dedc79

            where is the evidence that Martin initiated a physical confrontation with Zimmerman? The only new evidence i’ve seen shown that zimmerman did have some bleeding and scratch marks on his scalp, which only suggests that there was a fight, not who attacked who. In addition some of Zimmerman’s witnesses have come forward and changed their stories.

    • http://www.tarheelred.com/ Pino

      It’s strange to see folks like Bill O’Reilly trying to argue that the world is out to get white males.

      I mentioned this above. I don’t think people are saying the world is out to get white guys. I think he’s pointing out that there exists hate crimes committed against white guys and no where do we see the media circus.