I am sticking to my statement that Romney’s the frontrunner and that I expect him to win. But, just as it was with Trump, Perry, and Cain, Newtmentum is for real, for now:
In Pennsylvania Gingrich has 32% to 15% for Cain, 12% for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, 9% for Ron Paul, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman, and 0% for Gary Johnson.
In Arizona Gingrich has 28% to 23% for Romney, 17% for Cain, 8% for Paul, 5% for Huntsman, 3% for Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum, and 0% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich’s leads are a result of Cain’s support finally starting to really fall apart. For an 8 week period from the end of September through last week Cain was over 20% in every single poll we did at the state or national level. … Now that Cain has slipped below that 20% threshold of support he had consistently held, Gingrich is proving to be the beneficiary. One thing that’s striking in looking at Gingrich’s numbers in both of these states is that he leads among both Republicans who identify with the Tea Party and those who don’t. …
Perry below 5 percent in both states! That was one rapid implosion. Which I see in Newt’s future.
The post title is a George W. Bush quote, from the 2000 campaign, as he explained why he pushed for poorly polling tax cuts skewed toward the wealthiest:
“I don’t care what the polls say. I don’t.” Insisting there was no reason to turn back, he explained, “It’s a well thought out plan backed by numbers, backed by credible sources, and it’s something I’m going to stay with, you bet.”